Teorie přirozeného kurzu a její aplikace na Českou republiku

The natural exchange rate theory is a specific modification of the balance of payments theory. The balance of payments theory explains the fluctuation of the exchange rate as a function of its balance. The natural exchange rate theory is based on the same idea, but in addition it also discriminates between three basic balances: balance of primary factors, balance of secondary factors and balance of tertiary factors of the exchange rate. The fluctuation of the so called natural exchange rate is determinated by the balance of primary factors, which are "natural" for all economies. The article tries to apply the natural exchange rate theory to the Czech Republic at the time of monetary crisis and to evaluate the impact of above mentioned factors on the natural and nominal exchange rate. The natural exchange rate is necessary to understand as an ideal (theoretical) exchange rate, which constructs a sort of theoretical principal of the nominal exchange rate.