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A MONTE CARLO METHOD SIMULATION OF THE EUROPEAN FUNDS THAT CAN BE ACCESSED BY ROMANIA IN 2014-2020

Economics

A MONTE CARLO METHOD SIMULATION OF THE EUROPEAN FUNDS THAT CAN BE ACCESSED BY ROMANIA IN 2014-2020

Name and surname of author:

Gheorghe Săvoiu, Emil Burtescu, Vasile Dinu, Ligian Tudoroiu

Year:
2017
Volume:
20
Issue:
3
Keywords:
Simulation, Monte Carlo, European funds earmarked, EU funds accessed, the current absorption rate and the actual rate, revenue (in advance)
JEL clasification:
C53 - Forecasting Methods - Simulation Methods , C63 - Computational Techniques - Simulation Modeling, E17 - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, E27 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, E37 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, F47 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
DOI (& full text):
https://dx.doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2017-3-002
Anotation:
The authors dealt with finding some relevant simulation solutions for the value of the European funds that can be accessed by Romania in the second budget cycle (2014-2020) of the European Union (EU), in which the national economy is participating after the 2007 accession. The article presents, in a brief conceptual introduction, the option for simulation, not only as economical and statistical alternative but also as conceptual and technical method, followed by an analysis section for the EU funds accessed by Romania in the 2007-2013 financial period and in the first three years of 2014-2020 financial period, with a role in generating hypotheses and scenarios of a type of modelling the process of accessing and specific absorption (including all types of rates, from the current absorption rate to the actual rate, with revenue in advance, etc.). A methodology section describes the rationale for selecting the method of simulation as Monte Carlo, and also the main hypotheses, detailed scenarios and integrated characteristic variables. The scenario-making eventually shaped three options by combining criteria of stability/instability, nuanced by optimistic/ pessimistic type scenarios. The analysis of the variables described by a probability distribution was conducted statistically on several types of samples simulated by the Monte Carlo method, from 100 draws to 200; 300; 400; and finally 500 and 1,000 draws. A presentation of the final simulation results and a number of major comments regarding their calibration, confrontation, clarity and statistical analysis, together with some final remarks as conclusions, limitations and perspectives, end the research approach.
The authors dealt with finding some relevant simulation solutions for the value of the European funds that can be accessed by Romania in the second budget cycle (2014-2020) of the European Union (EU), in which the national economy is participating after the 2007 accession. The article presents, in a brief conceptual introduction, the option for simulation, not only as economical and statistical alternative but also as conceptual and technical method, followed by an analysis section for the EU funds accessed by Romania in the 2007-2013 financial period and in the first three years of 2014-2020 financial period, with a role in generating hypotheses and scenarios of a type of modelling the process of accessing and specific absorption (including all types of rates, from the current absorption rate to the actual rate, with revenue in advance, etc.). A methodology section describes the rationale for selecting the method of simulation as Monte Carlo, and also the main hypotheses, detailed scenarios and integrated characteristic variables. The scenario-making eventually shaped three options by combining criteria of stability/instability, nuanced by optimistic/ pessimistic type scenarios. The analysis of the variables described by a probability distribution was conducted statistically on several types of samples simulated by the Monte Carlo method, from 100 draws to 200; 300; 400; and finally 500 and 1,000 draws. A presentation of the final simulation results and a number of major comments regarding their calibration, confrontation, clarity and statistical analysis, together with some final remarks as conclusions, limitations and perspectives, end the research approach.
Section:
Economics
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