SCENARIOS AND THEIR APPLICATION IN STRATEGIC PLANNING

The article deals with the concept of scenario planning. Scenarios, as opposed to usual prediction methods, are focused on the identification of discontinuities in the development and help the organization cope with sudden changes and noticeably contribute to its survival. Contemporary methods of scenarios construction work on need to ensure flexibility of the strategic plan and get the firm ready for a quick reaction when set trigger points specifying the corresponding scenario come to pass. Processing of business environment information, known as Business Intelligence, becomes necessity. Based on the methodological platform, it describes in detail the stepwise process of scenario construction. The very process of scenario elaboration goes through six basic steps, Identification of risk factors and determination of their importance; Selection of key risks which, according to the company’s opinion, fundamentally influence fulfilment of strategic goals; Formulation of basic scenarios and testing their consistency; Determination of probability of scenarios occurrence and Performing a “gap analysis” for the sake of determining the extent of strategic goals fulfilment. There are various types of scenarios which might be respected due to the development of entrepreneurial environment introduced and discussed. Respecting the indicated risk factors and their influence on key risks of the financial plan, the spread of scenarios is being drafted. It is typice of business practice to work with 3–4 scenarios. Besides determining the impact of a risk on the firm’s performance (the rate of fulfilling set strategic goals), the probability assessment of each scenario is also necessary. Outputs from constructed scenarios are to be worked up into a particular strategic option, which may be used as a qualified base for the strategic decisionmaking process.The practical application shows how the methodology used raises flexibility in strategic planning of the firm.