HYPOTÉZA PERMANENTNÍHO PŘÍJMU V ZEMÍCH VISEGRÁDSKÉ SKUPINY

Consumption following a permanent income hypothesis (PIH) is a theoretical concept the validity of which in a given economy during a given period can be confirmed or non-confirmed by the help of an econometric approach. Mathematical formulation of PIH following adaptive expectation technique given by Friedman and the ways of testing the validity of permanency are recapitulated. Two alternative approaches are established: (a) Model published by Campbell and Mankiw [4] looking for an appropriate econometric technique starting by permanent income hypothesis; based on the results of Hall and Flavin, the model allows to reflect an existence of both PIH and non – PIH consumers and to quantify their proportion. (b) Model of error correction mechanism as a theoretical concept bringing a solution of problems arising by dealing with non – stationary time – series (e.g. [15]) which happened to suite PIH as an application. Possible influence of financial and economic crises is proposed to be measured by introducing relevant dummies in the models. Using the actual data of the Visegrád group (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) and comprising Austrian economy to provide a comparison, both models are estimated. Small discrepancies according to model in question are evident by following individual economies. Treating Visegrád as a panel, both models provide an identical result. PIH cannot be applied to whole economies, nevertheless, as it is shown about 50% of households in the four Visegrád economies consume according to PIH. Critical years 2008–2012 (end of the data sample) do not change this result significantly.