KOMPOZITNÝ PREDSTIHOVÝ INDIKÁTOR HOSPODÁRSKÉHO CYKLU SLOVENSKA

The main goal of this paper is to create composite leading indicator (CLI) for Slovak economy and
its comparison with composite leading indicators created by OECD, Eurostat and Infostat. The
theoretical part of the paper consists of the methods that are employed for creation composite
leading indicator in the world. We compare methods of OECD, Eurostat, Conference Board and the
methods of Slovak and Czech authors. Asset of this part is the table with comparison of these
methods based on chosen criteria such as type of business cycle, reference series, type of data,
detrending method, determination of weights and construction of composite leading indicator. At
the beginning of the empirical part of our article we create own methodology for creation of new
composite leading indicator for Slovak economy. Then we analyzed 112 indicators from different
areas of Slovak economy for Slovak economy. For construction of composite leading indicators we
needed to identify the groups of coincident, lagging and leading indicators. From the group of
leading indicators we create new composite leading indicator for Slovak economy which can be
used on monitoring and short-term prediction of Slovak business cycle. For determination of the
quality of our composite leading indicator we compare this CLI with CLI Eurostat, CLI OECD and
CLI Infostat. We compared two important criteria: number of months/quarters of lead-time and
quality of this lead-time (value of the correlation coefficient).
The main goal of this paper is to create composite leading indicator (CLI) for Slovak economy and its comparison with composite leading indicators created by OECD, Eurostat and Infostat. The theoretical part of the paper consists of the methods that are employed for creation composite leading indicator in the world. We compare methods of OECD, Eurostat, Conference Board and the methods of Slovak and Czech authors. Asset of this part is the table with comparison of these methods based on chosen criteria such as type of business cycle, reference series, type of data, detrending method, determination of weights and construction of composite leading indicator. At the beginning of the empirical part of our article we create own methodology for creation of new composite leading indicator for Slovak economy. Then we analyzed 112 indicators from different areas of Slovak economy for Slovak economy. For construction of composite leading indicators we needed to identify the groups of coincident, lagging and leading indicators. From the group of leading indicators we create new composite leading indicator for Slovak economy which can be used on monitoring and short-term prediction of Slovak business cycle. For determination of the quality of our composite leading indicator we compare this CLI with CLI Eurostat, CLI OECD and CLI Infostat. We compared two important criteria: number of months/quarters of lead-time and quality of this lead-time (value of the correlation coefficient).